Wellesley College professor Karl Case is a nationally-recognized expert on the housing market.
He might be best known for predicating the decline of the housing market a few years back when others thought the market had more growth ahead. Well, Case is speaking out again, and I have some good news and some bad news.
First the bad news: If you were hoping for the market to decline another 10-20 percent over the next 18 months, you may be greatly disappointed.
The good news: You probably can stop procrastinating about buying a home. The deals aren't likely to be any better in 2009.
Case believes there are "strong signs of a possible [housing] rebound," the Boston Herald reported May 9, 2008. His optimism is based on a key economic indicator: housing starts.
Case said the decline in housing starts nationally reached an important threshold last month, dropping below the one million mark.
"Over the past 30 years, this has signaled the end of a real estate market downturn. Housing construction rebounded sharply in the ’70s, ’80s and ’90s after reaching this low point, Case said."
The Greater Boston Area may even rebound sooner.
"While prices rocketed locally during the recent real estate boom, the Boston area did not see the orgy of construction that flooded markets like Florida and Nevada with new homes."
Not everyone agrees with Case. Even his business partner, Yale economist Robert Shiller, disagrees. Case and Shiller put together the Standard & Poor/Case-Shiller housing index.
What I found interesting is the lack of coverage regarding Case's prediction. I was interested in finding more news coverage about Case's beliefs, but I could not find one. Most of the media clearly isn't interested in reporting good news about the housing market.
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